Customer story · Sports prediction markets

A tournament season with ~$6.1M in trading volume.

A sports prediction-market exchange used Claimr to connect live trades to points, streaks and referrals. About 4,100 participants made 494,000 trades across the six-week season and later activity.

One sports prediction-market campaign · Six-week season and later activity

Explore the resultsAll customer stories

The program at a glance

From a live trade to visible progress

  1. Connect the account

    Link exchange activity to a campaign participant

  2. Score the event

    Apply points, streaks and reward conditions

  3. Show the progress

    Update the participant’s place on the leaderboard

Reported campaign outcomes

Trading activity, measured beyond sign-up

Volume counts executed buys and sells, not revenue or trader profit. Four anomalous trades are excluded; 158 high-frequency accounts contributed 76% of the remaining volume.

Executed trading volume
~$6.1M

Buy and sell volume reported by the exchange, excluding four anomalous trades.

Executed trades
~494k

Trades linked to campaign participants, excluding four anomalous trades.

Active traders
~4,100

Participants who placed at least one trade on a linked exchange account.

Final vs. first week’s volume
~11×

About $2.0M in the final reported week, compared with $190k in the first.

Referred participants traded
45%

Share of referred participants who placed a trade; 8% in the other group.

Traded on 8+ days
~1,000

Traders active on at least eight distinct days, not necessarily consecutively.

One sports prediction-market campaign · Six-week season and later activity

The challenge

Turn tournament attention into product activity

The exchange had a short tournament window to turn a growing audience into active traders. The program needed to recognize activity on the exchange and give participants reasons to explore markets throughout the season.

Claimr’s role

Connect the exchange to the reward program

Claimr co-designed the season and built a custom integration with the exchange’s trade stream. Executed trades and resolved positions arrived through the events API, were matched to linked accounts and updated points, streaks, reward tiers and the leaderboard.

The Claimr setup

Product events powered the season

Five mechanics connected trading activity, progress and invitations to the same program.

Live trade scoring

Executed trades, wins and losses flowed from the exchange into Claimr and were scored against the campaign’s rules.

Trading-day streaks

Qualifying trading days earned points. The multiplier stepped up after each full week of consecutive activity and reset after a missed day.

Win tiers by trade size

Four winning-trade size tiers, from about $10 to $5,000, determined points alongside the trader’s streak and staking multiplier. The tiers launched during the season.

A staking multiplier

Holding the exchange’s token in the staking program applied a 1.2× or 1.5× points multiplier.

Market-discovery quests

Quests covered underdogs, live markets, player performance, top-scorer markets, packs and a tournament-winner prediction.

Custom trade integrationLive event scoringTrading-day streaksWin tiersStaking multiplierMarket-discovery questsPoints-share referralsLeaderboard

The season timeline

Weekly volume rose throughout the season

Executed volume grew from about $190k in the first week to $2.0M in the last. Active traders peaked in week four, while volume continued to rise through the final reported week.

Trading volume by weekExecuted buys and sells in USD · Six-week reporting window · Four anomalous trades excluded
189k
Week 1
502k
Week 2
822k
Week 3
1.06M
Week 4
1.48M
Week 5
2.02M
Week 6

The headline total also includes about $11k in later trades, outside the six weeks shown.

Active traders by weekParticipants with at least one executed trade in each week
185
Week 1
442
Week 2
770
Week 3
1,713
Week 4
1,583
Week 5
1,386
Week 6
Daily averages around the win-tier launch
MeasureBefore tiersAfter tiersReported ratio
Daily trading volume~$101k~$334k3.3×
Daily active traders~405~9352.3×
Daily trades~6,800~32,4004.7×

The campaign report’s “after” period covers eight days and overlaps the tournament’s final stage. This comparison does not isolate the effect of win-tier rewards.

Referral participation

15% of participants. About half of all traders.

Referrers earned 20% of the points their invitees earned. 45% of referred participants placed a trade, compared with 8% of the other group. Referred traders accounted for about $2.2M in volume.

Participants who became tradersShare of all participants in each referral group
Joined via referral~4.5k participants
45%
No traceable referrer~25.6k participants
8%

These are observed groups, not a randomized comparison. The difference does not establish that referral rewards caused higher conversion.

From joining to trading

Those who traded usually started quickly

About 30,100 participants joined the campaign, and ~4,100 placed a trade. Among those traders, 69% made their first trade within an hour after joining, and 85% within a day.

Time from joining to first tradeShare of all traders, including the separate group who traded before joining
Within 1 hour
69%
1–24 hours
16%
1–7 days
10%
More than 7 days
3%
Before joining
2%

Timing describes the participants who traded. It is not the conversion rate of everyone who joined.

Repeat activity

A core group traded across multiple days

Trading-day streaks and market-discovery quests gave participants ways to progress through the season. About 1,000 traders were active on eight or more distinct days, including roughly 500 on fifteen or more.

~1,000

Traded on 8+ days

Traders active on at least eight distinct days, not necessarily consecutively.

~500

Traded on 15+ days

Traders active on at least fifteen distinct days during recorded activity.

Distinct days with a tradeShare of traders · Days need not be consecutive
1 day
57%
2–7 days
18%
8–14 days
13%
15+ days
12%

Where the volume came from

A small group accounted for most of the volume

158 accounts with at least 500 trades each generated 76% of volume. The other roughly 3,900 trading accounts generated about $1.5M. Both groups remain included in the headline total.

Volume by trading frequencyShare of executed buy and sell volume after the four-trade exclusion

76% · ~$4.6M500+ trades per account
158 accounts

24% · ~$1.5MAll other trading accounts
3,914 accounts

Frequency alone does not establish whether an account is automated or abusive. Trading volume is not exchange revenue or trader profit.

Volume by market typeShare of executed buy and sell volume
Match markets
56%
Player performance
37%
Top-scorer race
7%
Tournament winner
<1%

Sells made up 39% of executed trades. Buy and sell amounts both contribute to reported volume.

Lessons for another season

Measure the breadth of participation as well as volume

Plan for concentrated activity

A small group generated most of the volume. Evaluate reward caps and diminishing returns alongside the number of participants who meaningfully use the product.

Understand the first-action gap

About one in seven participants traded. Track the steps between joining, linking an account and placing a first trade to understand where participants stop.

Separate the mechanic from the moment

The win-tier launch overlapped the tournament’s final stage. Plan comparisons that distinguish changes in reward design from changes in audience attention.

Methodology

How to read the results

View sources and measurement details

The supplied campaign report describes the mechanics and launch comparison. Participant and exchange-event exports reproduce the headline volume, trade counts, weekly chart, referral groups, first-trade timing and activity-day distribution. Figures are rounded; percentages use unrounded counts. The customer remains anonymous.

Participants and traders
The export contains 30,101 participant records. A trader is a participant with an executed trade on a linked exchange account. The analysis identifies 4,072 trading participants and 4,072 linked trading accounts. These are campaign records, not independently verified unique people.
Volume and exclusions
Volume is the USD size of executed buys and sells reported by the exchange. Four launch-day trades from one account, totaling $14,999,140, are excluded using the supplied report’s stated rule. The remaining 493,546 events total $6,080,041.70. No duplicate trade IDs were found. No other trade was excluded, and high-frequency accounts remain included.
Season and later activity
The six weekly bins reproduce the report’s timeline. The full total also includes 998 later trades worth $10,978, which are not shown in the six-week chart. Participant totals use the full supplied export. Timing and distinct trading days also include later recorded trades.
Referral groups
Referral links were matched to the links owned by retained participant records. Of 4,494 referred participants, 2,012 traded (44.8%). Of 25,607 others, 2,060 traded (8.0%). The other group includes one link without a retained referrer. These observational groups are not evidence that referral rewards caused the conversion difference.
First-trade timing
Elapsed time runs from the participant’s recorded join timestamp to their first recorded trade. Of all 4,072 traders, 2,801 traded within one hour after joining and another 651 within 24 hours. Ninety-four had already traded before joining and remain a separate category. These percentages describe traders, not all sign-ups.
Distinct trading days
A trading day is a UTC calendar day with at least one recorded executed trade. There were 1,026 traders active on eight or more days, including 506 active on fifteen or more. These days need not be consecutive, and the counts do not establish post-season retention.
Volume concentration
High-frequency means at least 500 trades per linked account. The 158 accounts in this group generated $4,600,069.24, or 75.7% of volume. This classification measures frequency; it does not establish whether an account is a bot or whether its activity is abusive.
Win-tier comparison and fees
The report compares earlier daily averages with eight days after win tiers launched. That period overlaps the tournament’s final stage, so the difference cannot be assigned to the new mechanic. The report’s fee estimates apply hypothetical rates; actual exchange fees and revenue are not established or presented as results here.
Scope
These results describe one campaign. The report states that no bot filtering was applied beyond the program’s rules. Market mix and segment comparisons describe observed activity and do not establish a causal effect or expected results for another program.

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